Excerpts of a roundtable discussion 'The End Of Syria?' (November 2012') at Bar Elan University outlining an Israeli perspective on Syria's likely scenarios and their implications for Israel and the West.
"...Can assad and his alawite powerbase win out and re-assert control over the country?
Dr. Max Singer: It could be years before an outcome is determined in Syria. Nevertheless, an Alawite victory, with or without Assad, is possible because Iran is giving unlimited help to the Syrian government’s struggle to suppress the revolt. The minorities and the business community may be so afraid of a Sunni government led by Muslim Brotherhood figures and Salafis that they deprive the Sunnis of the support they need to defeat the government. While it is uncomfortable to be in any way supportive to a regime as nasty as Assad’s, it doesn’t seem likely that a Sunni regime would kill any fewer Syrians than Assad is capable of. All the minorities are afraid of the Sunnis, and with good cause.
Prof. Efraim Inbar: Assad will not run out of ammunition due to Russian and Iranian military assistance......
Dr. Mordechai Kedar: Iran could yet send real troops to Syria to support Assad, passing through Iraq with official invitation of the Syrian regime and Iraqi consent, something like the Saudi invasion of Bahrain. This could change the entire regional picture, since Iranian troops might stay in Syria forever, and be “invited” by the Hizballah-dominated Lebanese government to extend their presence into Lebanon too. ... Over the longer-term, I see the emergence of Kurdish, Alawi, and Druze districts, with fairly stable self-governance, perhaps even independent statehood. This may be the most stable and preferred outcome (for Israel)
Prof. Hillel Frisch: I disagree. States don’t disintegrate that quickly. Lebanon, for example, hasn’t really functioned as a unitary state for more than 15 years, yet it still exists as a country. I think that Syria will hold together in fragmented fashion, like Iraq does today. The Sunnis will be constantly challenged by the Kurds and Alawites, but the state will remain as one entity ...
Prof. Shmuel Sandler: A Sunni-led federal solution will not hold in Syria. For such a shared-rule solution, what is needed is a federal political culture – which does not exist in the Arab Middle East. Lebanon tried this and failed. ...
Prof. Efraim Inbar: First of all, we can admit that Israel doesn’t mind that fact that its adversaries are bleeding themselves a bit. We have no love lost for Assad. Furthermore, the conflict is acerbating the Sunni-Shiite divide, and bringing Iran and Turkey into conflict too. An outcome that reduces Russian and Iranian influence in Syria would be welcome, as well.Secondly, we should recognize that many national security issues in the eastern Mediterranean will be affected by the outcome in Syria, including the character of Cyprus, an island of great strategic importance. The eastern Mediterranean also holds enormous gas deposits that if properly developed can help Europe become less dependent on Russia and Turkey. The crisis in Syria is but a sideshow compared to the crisis over Iran’s development of nuclear weapons....
Prof. Eytan Gilboa: Israel and the West are in a lose-lose situation. Assad’s survival would be a victory for Iran and Hizballah. His weakness might help Iran to effectively take over the country and create a zone of influence which would include Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. A new regime might be dominated by extreme Islamic factions who would seek to destabilize the Syrian-Israeli border....
Dr. Max Singer: In retrospect, one thing is very clear: Israel was wise not to deliver the Golan to Syria. Indeed, the case for keeping the Golan may grow even stronger as events unfold...."
No comments:
Post a Comment